终极一班之我是王:Philippine Think Tank: Aquino, Don't Count On...

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Philippine Think Tank: Aquino, Don't Count On Washington That Much

General public emotions of Philippines are running extremely high, Aquino govt is somewhat bellicose, but seems like not all of Philippine are overheated by the maritime dispute - now, their think tanks are warning don't rely too much on US, the negotiation should be the priority. Otherwise, there would be bigger source of tensions and conflict in South China Sea --


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Chung-Hoon


US's Chung-Hoon, Howard and a salvage warship of the US 7th fleet will joint the drill.


The United States and the Philippines begins 11 days of maritime security exercises near disputed waters in the South China Sea on June 28, with the Philippines buoyed by a renewed US pledge of support in boosting its military capabilities.


A Philippine think-tank, the Center for People Empowerment in Governance, warned the Philippine government against relying too much on the US in protecting the country’s national interests in the Nansha (Spratlys) territorial dispute.



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Howard


The group has called on Manila to adopt a “more mature and independent” foreign policy.


In a paper, Cenpeg director for policy study, publication and advocacy Bobby Tuazon said the Manila’s solicitation of military aid from the US might not lead to a resolution of the Nansha (Spratlys) issue.


The Aquino administration has said that the Philippines can invoke its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the U.S. to defend its territorial claim in the Nansha (Spratlys) Islands. The government said modern military equipment would be purchased in the US. Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin even asked for US navy ships’ deployment in the South China Sea to check Chinese aggression.



Tuazon pointed out while American policy on the Nansha (Spratlys) Islands issue has always served its own interests and not the Philippines’, Filipino officials continued to have an “intractable belief” that the country’s national interests would be best enhanced by its special ties with the US.


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China, according to Tuazon, will continue to adhere to its foreign policy in ensuring a peaceful environment conducive for steering an economy now considered as the second largest in the world with a global projection that will require a modern maritime and defense system.


This was the reason why China had backed joint seismic and oil exploration of the waters of the Nansha (Spratlys) Islands and reiterated for bilateral diplomatic talks with other claimant-countries.


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"[...]negotiation should be the priority,” he added.


“The only winners in a war scenario are arms suppliers – and these are aplenty in the US. They are not just lurking – they have the capability to provoke profit-oriented wars,” he said.


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Chinese DM Liang Guanglie just met Philippine Leader Aquino in May

Tuazon questioned whether the territorial dispute might be used to justify huge budgets for the Armed Forces of the Philippines modernization, the purchase of military supplies, and the keeping of the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement with the US, even if there have been moves in the Philippine Congress to submit it for review or abolish it.


“Is this not therefore playing into the hands of war hawks in the Pentagon to use America’s numerous defense treaties with the Philippines and other countries in East Asia in increasing and realigning its security forces toward the strategic encirclement of China? Can’t this actually be the bigger source of tension and conflict in the South China Sea?”



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2# > A < Posted  2011-6-28 13:54  Only show this user's posts There are obviously many intelligent Filipino people who can see stealing Chinese sovereign territory is not beneficial for the Philippines.  The best thing for the Philippines to do is to recognize China's rightful sovereignty in the S. China Sea and pull back its invasive forces.  Then China can help it with its fundamental development while maintaining peace in the S. E. Asian region.

The Filipino people should know that Singapore, S. Korea, Taiwan, and Japan all have little or no resources.  And yet they are all more developed than the Philippines and have much higher incomes for their peoples.  The Filipino people should learn that education and productivity are the fundamental way to make them rich.  Even if there is enough oil to give the Philippines $100 billion a year, yet divided by 100 million Filipino population, each Filipino will only get $1,000.  If they develop their economy through raising their education and productivity then each Filipino can make average income of $10,000 a year to $30,000 a year like the Singaporeans and the Taiwanese.  In which case an additional $1,000 is really insignificant.  So cooperate with China to establish peace and then with the help of China develop their economy fundamentally for much bigger incomes of the Filipino people on a sustainable basis for centuries to come.  On the other hand, fight China and squander their scarce revenues buying arms that only result in the death of many Filipino soldiers and don't get any oil anyway.
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3# > A < Posted  2011-6-28 14:03  Only show this user's posts I have explained in other posts that there are many reasons why America is encouraging Philippines to fight China.  These include using the Philippines as a threat to blackmail China to extort concessions out of China.  Other reasons are to sell arms to the Philippines that will benefit the American arms dealers.  There are also other reasons such as making a show for the benefit of the domestic American voters who like to see their government making domineering postures and telling the world what to do.  But both the Filipino people and the American politicians should be careful that this does not blow up in their faces.  If a war erupts, then both the American government and the Philippines government will look very bad.  If the Philippines lost the war, and they certainly will as there is no way they can defeat the Chinese navy, then the Obama government will look incompetent and get voted out by the American voters next year.  And the defeat will also cause instability in the Philippines leading to a change in government.  Aquino will find himself becoming a joke in the eyes of the Filipino people and will need to run off to America to hide.  Many Filipinos will blame him for his folly for causing the death of many Filipino soldiers and squandering scarce revenues for a futile war that in retrospect could simply not be won.
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4# > A < Posted  2011-6-28 16:50  Only show this user's posts

Filipinos Taken For Ride By Opportunists

As usual, what Philippines corrupt and opportunistic generals and politicians will do is to turn the situation to line their pockets.  Ten percent commissions from the purchases of weapons of war from American suppliers with reserves Manila can ill afford to when its people are literally starving.  Oh, these scoundrels will pound the drums of war as diversion to empty the pockets of the unthinking mob whilst playing the hero.  Like the general who played "negotiator" with the Basilan bandits holding tourists for ranson by claiming the bandits were asking for a large amount while in effect he was pocketing the huge difference in terms of millions. A scoundrel, conman, and a thief, while pretending to be a hero.  That's the Phiippines for you.  When the opportunities arises, scums will rise to the surface and come to the fore.  Heros definitely they are not but crooks.  And the Philippines are full of these tin-pot generals cultivated by the CIA.
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5# > A < Posted  2011-6-29 06:09  Only show this user's posts Quote from the article:
China, according to Tuazon, will continue to adhere to its foreign policy in ensuring a peaceful environment conducive for steering an economy now considered as the second largest in the world with a global projection that will require a modern maritime and defense system.


This was the reason why China had backed joint seismic and oil exploration of the waters of the Nansha (Spratlys) Islands and reiterated for bilateral diplomatic talks with other claimant-countries.

-----------------------------------------------
As I have pointed out in some other posts, China has the potential to become as productive as America and Japan on a per capita basis because the Chinese people can be just as well educated and productive as they are.  This means the Chinese can achieve a per capita GNP of 200,000 yuan and a total GNP of 300 trillion yuan on a population of 1.5 billion.  At 3 yuan per dollar this is equivalent to $100 trillion.  Therefore, China will not long be the second most rich economy in the world but will ultimately become the richest country in the world by far.   And as its economy developed its technological advancement will also continue to become the most advanced in the world.  And the combination of the richest economy and the most advanced technologies will allow China to become the most militarily powerful country in the world.  

Because of this it is simply illogical for Philippines to antagonize China.  It will then lose them the economic benefit that China can give them while provoking a military response that could crush them severely.  This is not the action of a rational country.  Once China has attained to its full development it could do more than $100 billion of trade per year with the Philippines for mutual benefit.  This is more than $5 trillion over the course of the 21st Century.  Philippines cannot get even $1 trillion out of the S. China Sea oil.  And while trade and peace with China can continue forever, oil will be depleted within 20 or 30 years.  Then without the oil Philippines will slide back to abject poverty again.  On the other hand trade with China can keep them rich forever.

In any event Philippines cannot get any oil because it belongs to China and the new China will never permit any foreigners to take its oil.